Understanding Political Dynamics in East Asia: Elections, Polarization, Democracy Perceptions, and Populism

This panel presents a comprehensive study of contemporary political dynamics in East Asia, with a particular interest in democratic development in South Korea and Taiwan. First paper examines the aftermath of the 2024 parliamentary election in South Korea, where the ruling party's unexpected defeat is attributed to a significant loss of presidential support among voters. The study tests the "partisanship-driven" and "issue-driven influence" hypotheses to understand voter behavior, highlighting how polarization shapes electoral outcomes based on identity and policy preferences. Second paper explores affective polarization's impact on democratic perceptions, emphasizing how heightened partisan biases distort evaluations of political actors' behaviors. Through a survey experiment, the study demonstrates that increased affective polarization fosters biased assessments of democratic norms, undermining accountability and fostering demonization of political opponents. Third paer investigates how South Koreans' satisfaction with democracy influences their perceptions of North Korea. It reveals that as democratic preferences solidify post-Cold War, perceptions of North Korea as a kin group, competitor, or adversary vary, potentially widening mutual perception gaps and complicating efforts for reconciliation. Last paper analyzes the distinct characteristics of populism in East Asian liberal democracies compared to Western contexts. It argues for viewing populism as an ordinal variable, assessing its degrees rather than binary presence. Using textual analysis of presidential speeches in South Korea and Taiwan, the study illustrates how country-specific factors like North Korean relations and cross-strait dynamics shape populist rhetoric. Together, our panel offer insights into the intricate interplay of elections, polarization, democratic perceptions, and populism in shaping political landscapes in East Asia.