Belarus 2020-2025: The Electoral Cycle of Transition from the Dictatorship of Spin to the Dictatorship of Fear

The period from 2020 to 2025 is a pivotal phase in the recent political history of Belarus. Following the 2020 presidential campaign, Belarus has experienced a swift transformation from a stable spin-dictatorship regime into a dictatorship characterized by pervasive fear. The panel aims to analyze the development of the Belarusian state and society across political, social, and economic dimensions in the context of escalating propaganda and growing social divisions in the region. Key topics will include the evolution of Belarusian political elites and their dichotomy during this period, the specific characteristics of economic system development and property relations within it, and the role and impact of populism and propaganda (both domestic and Russian). Additionally, it will explore how populist tools are used to manipulate the circumstances of national minorities by the power elite. This analysis seeks to underscore the significance of the 2024–2025 Belarusian electoral cycle as an example of a new trajectory of undemocratic transformation among post-Soviet states.